Market Outlook: 2021 and Beyond

I predict that we will enter a bear market within the next five months, it will become official towards the end of 2021, and it will continue until the end of the Biden administration. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies will rise.

To make this clear, I'm going to examine a couple of metrics and figures. The following figure shows how the technology sector performed in the past three decades measured by the NASDAQ. Three bull markets are outlined in three sets of parallel lines.

Figure 1. (weekly, logarithmic)


Likewise, the S&P 500 illustrates three bull markets in the past three decades.

Figure 2. (weekly)


All three of those depicted bull markets break above their channel towards the end, which will always mark the beginning of a bear market. The dot-com bubble on the second figure did not follow this trend in part because technology was not significantly represented at the time. However, its intra-channel movement behaved exactly like the end of a bull market.

Furthermore, there is a predictive correlation between the value of gold and 10-year Treasury yields. Usually, gold is able to predict yields, and yields are able to predict inflation and deflation.

There are eight lines in the following two figures that measure the value of gold and yields over the past five years.

Figure 3. (weekly)


Figure 4. (weekly)


The first line in the third figure is between October 2015 and April 2016, while the first line in the fourth figure is between April 2016 and October 2016. This predictive correlation shows how yields tend to trail gold in every other interval, too, although there are inconsistencies in 2020 because of COVID-19.

According to this correlation, deflation should be on the horizon and will come to fruition as soon as yields drop. However, there is reason beyond correlations alone to believe that we will soon enter a deflationary period. When gold loses value, that should mean the USD gains value, since they are in competition. However, this has not been the case for the past several months, which suggests that gold is not able to be purchased as much as it should be because of harsh economic conditions. This should mean that widespread insolvency will start to materialize in the near future.

To be specific, I predict that we will not see movement similar to what we saw during the dot-com bubble on the NASDAQ.

Figure 5. (daily, logarithmic)


Figure 6. (daily, logarithmic)


Instead, I predict that within the next five months, the NASDAQ will break below the top of its channel and that, as of December, we are experiencing the third and final spike of this bull market.

Figure 7. (daily, logarithmic)


This is supported by the fact that the NASDAQ behaved similarly in 2007.

Figure 8. (daily, logarithmic)


As well as the S&P 500 in both 2007 and during the dot-com bubble.

Figure 9. (daily)


Figure 10. (daily)


For these reasons, the S&P 500 should hit the bottom of its channel within the next five months, and then retest the top of its channel and enter a bear market by the end of the Biden administration.

Figure 11. (daily)


Based on this information, if Biden chooses not to run for a second term, Democrats should not win the presidency in 2024, according to the 13 keys to the White House.

Thanks for the financial advice.

Itt. i went on wallstreetbets for a week

My prediction has been 100% right so far just saying

Itt. i went on wallstreetbets for a week

Skrevet av Tribune Aquila, 25.02.2021 at 15:29

My prediction has been 100% right so far just saying

HAA

We are 100% fucked

Look at these beautiful numbers, and China think it can beat USA with sweatshops, commies.